Neelam Sinha
Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Agricultural Economics, IGKV, Raipur (C.G.)

Chhattisgarh’s agriculture, particularly during the Kharif season, is heavily dependent on the monsoon. Any irregularity whether early onset, excess rains, or prolonged dry spells can disrupt the entire agricultural cycle. The year 2025 highlighted this vulnerability with an early arrival of rains , followed by erratic patterns of flooding and dry phases.

Chhattisgarh, known as the Rice Bowl of India, stands at the center of this discussion. About 70% of farmers in the state cultivate paddy, and only 22% of land has assured irrigation, leaving most farms at the mercy of rainfall. Despite these vulnerabilities, farmers prefer paddy due to the ₹3,100 per quintal assured procurement policy, which minimizes market risks. However, this dependence discourages crop diversification and makes the agricultural economy fragile in the face of climate change.

To address this, an analysis through the lens of climate-resilient economics is essential.

1. Dominance of Paddy: The Economic Context
The predominance of paddy in Chhattisgarh is shaped by several economic and institutional factors:
  • Assured Procurement: A well-organized government procurement system minimizes market risks.
  • Price Stability: MSP with state bonus ensures farmers’ incomes remain predictable.
  • Reduced Middlemen Dependence: Farmers directly sell to procurement centers.
  • Income Security: Even when yields drop, the procurement mechanism guarantees earnings.

In 2023–24, around 14.49 million metric tonnes of paddy were procured from over 2.4 million farmers. In contrast, pulses, oilseeds, and millets despite having MSP - lack similar procurement, leaving farmers exposed to market fluctuations. This imbalance discourages diversification, thereby weakening resilience.

2. Economic Impact of the Uncertain Monsoon 2025

a) Decline in Yield and Quality
Heavy rains caused waterlogging and fungal diseases in many paddy fields, while dry spells during grain filling reduced yields and quality. Districts like Janjgir, Raigarh, and Dhamtari may report 10–15% lower yields compared to average years.

b) Unexpected Rise in Input Costs
The shortage of DAP fertilizer was a major challenge this year . Only 1.1 lakh tonnes were supplied against the demand of 3.1 lakh tonnes. Farmers were forced to purchase costlier alternatives, increasing cultivation costs by 20–30%. Globally, DAP prices rose to US$600–750 per tonne, worsening the situation despite subsidies.

c) Labour Pressure and Wage Hike
Erratic rainfall delayed field preparation and transplantation, increasing labour demand during peak periods. Labour shortages pushed wages up by 25–30%, raising overall production costs.

d) Market Imbalances and Price Volatility
While paddy prices remained stable because of procurement, other crops such as pulses and oilseeds can see severe price fluctuations. Farmers attempting diversification may have some unstable returns, while consumers bore the burden of high food prices.

Critical Analysis Through a Climate Resilient Lens
The present agricultural framework reveals critical weaknesses when viewed from a climate-resilient economics perspective:
  • Monocropping Dependence: Paddy-centric farming depletes water resources, reduces biodiversity, and heightens exposure to climate shocks.
  • Low Crop Diversification: Weak procurement systems for other crops discourage farmers from risk-spreading practices.
  • Short-Term Policy Orientation: MSP and bonuses address immediate income issues but lack a long-term climate adaptation focus.
  • Traditional Techniques: Seed broadcasting and manual transplantation remain prevalent, which are inefficient under erratic weather.

4. Data-Driven Climate Challenges

Aspect

Current Status

Climate Resilient Gap

Yield Risks

Irregular rainfall, pest outbreaks, diseases

Need for climate-resilient varieties & adaptive practices

DAP Fertilizer Supply

Shortage; only 1.1 lakh tonnes supplied against demand 3.1 lakh tonnes

Promote bio-fertilizers & alternative nutrients

Irrigation Coverage

Only ~22% irrigated; most areas rainfed

Expansion of drought-resilient irrigation systems

Farming Practices

Traditional broadcasting, labour-heavy transplantation

Wider use of SRI, micro-irrigation, precision farming

Case Study: Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation in Chhattisgarh
  • Farmer Perception of Climate Change: A 2022 study covering 240 farmers in the plain zone found that almost 34% reported high, 37% medium, and 29% low impact of climate change on agriculture and livelihoods. Traditional rice varieties like Gurmatia, Mundaria, and Nankeshar declined drastically from 86% to only 1.7% over 15 years.
  • Monsoon Variability & Migration: In Janjgir-Champa, rainfall dropped from 1,400–1,600 mm to 1,200–1,400 mm, while rainy days fell from 90 to 65. This disrupted sowing windows and limited the ability to grow a second crop, leading to seasonal migration.
  • Adoption of Sahbhagi Dhan (Drought-Tolerant Variety): ICAR’s drought-tolerant Sahbhagi Dhan can withstand 15 consecutive dry days and yield 1–2 t/ha under drought conditions, compared to total failure in traditional varieties. In normal conditions, yields reach 4–5 t/ha. Adoption increased from 6.6% to 12.3% households over a few years.
  • Varietal Diversity in Bilaspur: In Bilaspur, an economic study on 101 farmers found a diversity index of 0.46. Although varieties like Swarna were common, high costs and low returns (R-C ratio ~1.01) limited economic sustainability. Farmers cited lack of seeds, poor market access, and insufficient information as major constraints.

Key Lessons from the Case Study
  • Farmers recognize climate risks and are slowly adapting through varietal changes.
  • Varietal and crop diversification reduces risks but needs institutional support.
  • Seed availability, market support, and training remain critical gaps.
These findings reinforce the need for policy support in scaling climate-resilient practices.

Policy Recommendations for Climate Resilient Agricultural Economics
  • Expand Procurement to Include Diversified Crops: Introduce guaranteed purchase of pulses, oilseeds, and millets to encourage diversification.
  • Strengthen Irrigation Infrastructure: Accelerate projects like Bodhghat and expand micro-irrigation to reduce rainfall dependency.
  • Promote Climate-Smart Practices: Encourage SRI methods, flood/drought-tolerant paddy varieties, and organic nutrient management.
  • Leverage Technological Innovations: Support adoption of drones, AI-based monitoring, and precision farming to optimize inputs.
  • Ensure Fertilizer Availability: Secure DAP supply, promote local production, and expand use of bio-fertilizers.
  • Enhance Crop Insurance Mechanisms: Simplify PMFBY, introduce weather-indexed insurance, and improve claim processes.
  • Farmer Training and Awareness: Establish climate-adaptation training centers and support farmer-led innovation.

Conclusion: Chhattisgarh Agriculture Towards a Climate Resilient Future

The unpredictable monsoon of 2025 reveals that a paddy-centric agricultural model is economically risky and ecologically unsustainable. The ₹3,100 per quintal procurement offers short-term relief but reinforces monocropping and climate vulnerabilities.

For long-term resilience, policies must promote diversification, technology adoption, irrigation expansion, and fertilizer security, while empowering farmers with knowledge and tools to adapt. Case studies from Chhattisgarh show that farmers are willing to adopt climate-smart practices when supported by strong institutional mechanisms.

A climate-resilient agricultural economy is not just desirable it is essential for ensuring food security, farmer livelihoods, and sustainable growth.